Hezbollah’s attack on the Lebanese Army in Mansouri over the weekend was the terrorist group’s way of hinting that it would escalate if threatened, according to Prof. Eyal Zisser, the vice rector of Tel Aviv University and an expert on Hezbollah’s political strategy.
Sgt.-Maj. Ahmad Sami Khalil, from the village of Froun in the Bint Jbeil district, was killed on Saturday when there was an explosion in a Lebanese Army vehicle. Another soldier and an officer were wounded.
Initial reports in Lebanon speculated that the blast a few kilometers north of the Yellow Line had been an Israeli airstrike. That theory was mostly based on Israel’s targeting of Hezbollah infrastructure in previous days.
IDF confirms explosive was planted by Hezbollah
The IDF said the explosive had been planted by Hezbollah, adding that its troops were not in Mansouri.
“It should be noted that the Lebanese Army vehicle entered the security zone without prior coordination with the IDF, as required according to the existing coordination mechanism,” the IDF said.
In an interview with The Jerusalem Post on Sunday, Zisser said the escalation would likely depend on whether there was an agreement between Beirut and Jerusalem. Nevertheless, it was hard to predict how far Hezbollah would go, he said.
Last month, the US brokered an agreement between Beirut and Jerusalem for an Israeli withdrawal and the disarmament of Hezbollah. There have been disagreements regarding the pace of the Israeli withdrawal, according to reports.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun is in Washington this week to discuss the issue. He is expected to present US President Donald Trump with a proposal on how to disarm Hezbollah, one of Iran’s proxy groups.
Hezbollah’s next actions will likely be decided when things are more concrete between the two countries, as right now they constitute “mainly talks, nothing real,” Zisser said. “If the Lebanese government takes action, in such a case, we should expect retaliation from Hezbollah, but what will it be?”
Hezbollah has previously gone as far as to assassinate a former prime minister
Hezbollah assassinated former prime minister Rafic Hariri in 2005, and “nothing should surprise us,” he said.
There were only limited concerns of an immediate civil war, despite comments and threats from Hezbollah officials in recent months and the latest attacks, given that the terrorist group would only risk the action if the Lebanese Army begins operating against them, “something that they don’t do right now,” or if Beirut and Jerusalem sign a peace agreement, which is “not on the table” yet, Zisser said.
The weight of undercutting Hezbollah and Iran by forming an agreement with Hezbollah should translate to Israel being flexible in any agreement with Beirut, he said, adding that national security should not be among the issues Israel concedes on.
“You need to give it a try to contain Hezbollah politically,” Zisser said, and military containment may be more difficult to achieve. With the support of the United States and Beirut, the containment of Hezbollah’s political influence might be worth making some sacrifices for, he added.
Given that Hezbollah pursued a pause in fighting against Israel through Iran, and the now-defunct memorandum of understanding with the US, “Hezbollah cannot complain” should the US-brokered deal be finalized, Zisser said.
A ceasefire was nothing, because Hezbollah could simply break the agreement when it was ready, so it was “not important enough to go to war over,” he said.
“Right now, it is in the interest of Hezbollah to maintain a ceasefire, and that nothing will happen,” Zisser said. “Actually, nobody can do anything about [Hezbollah’s threat], because the Lebanese Army is weak and is afraid of Hezbollah, and Israel has received orders from the White House.”