The Canadian province of Alberta will decide in a little over two months whether it will stay in the Commonwealth or begin the process of seceding.
Alberta is an oil-rich, western province that traditionally votes Conservative. It has been home to a separatist movement for years, though it grew stronger after Canada’s 2025 election.
Some residents believe that Ottawa has a disproportionate say on internal matters in the province, and believe that the federal government's eco-friendly legislation has blunted progress for its oil and natural gas industry.
The vote is set to take place on October 19. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who has stated she supports a unified Canada, announced the vote on May 21.
According to the Alberta referendum website, the question on the ballot will be: "Should Alberta remain a province of Canada or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?"
Alberta to vote on whether or not to secede from Canada
Voters will decide between either remaining a Canadian province or starting the years-long legal process to bring about a binding referendum at a later date.
Notably, this referendum will not immediately start the secession process if Albertans vote in favor of separating from Canada.
The vote would also mark the first time in Canadian history that a province outside of Quebec has put the question of separation to the public.
Currently, only 19% of Alberta residents say they would vote to hold a binding referendum on separation, according to a June Ipsos poll. Some 72% of Albertans prefer to remain in Canada, the poll added.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has warned separatists that the referendum is a “dangerous bluff” and warned Smith of the similarities to Brexit.
"I saw firsthand what happened in the United Kingdom ... They're still 10 years later trying to undo what people didn't think they were voting for, but what they ended up having," Carney said, referring to the 2016 Brexit vote on leaving the European Union.
Notably, Carney was the governor of the Bank of England during Brexit.
"This is an observation from experience. In these separation issues, it's often advanced that, 'Vote for this, and it's a free option; vote for this, and we will strengthen our hand in future negotiation.' That is a very dangerous bluff," he said.
What do Alberta separatists believe?
Some separatists claim that they believe the province should join a union with other western provinces of Canada. Some believe that they can use the threat of separation to bargain with the government in Ottawa.
But others believe that the province has more in common with America than with Canada.
Separatist leaders have met with current Trump administration officials at least three times in the last year, though the US State Department has said that it made no promises to the factions of the movement eager to join the US.
“The department regularly meets with civil society types. As is typical in routine meetings such as these, no commitments were made,” a State Department statement read, according to CityNews Calgary.
Smith brought the matter to a provincial referendum after the group Alberta Prosperity Project collected over 300,000 signatures on a petition to force a vote on the matter. However, it was later blocked by an Alberta judge who said that the group failed to consult indigenous populations whose land would be affected by a separation from Canada.
At the same time, a separate group in Alberta called Forever Canadian collected 400,000 signatures for an anti-separation petition.
Smith appealed the court’s decision. The Alberta referendum website noted: “The Government of Alberta does not wish to wait years through an extended court process before receiving directions from Albertans on whether or not to pursue an issue as important as separation.”
Smith, who has aligned herself, said that she will accept the results in October, but will continue to push to remain in Canada.
"I will accept the result of this referendum," she said, according to the BBC. "That's why I'll be campaigning hard to try to convince Albertans of my position, which is to remain"